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Economic Update

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Economic Update

BNY Mellon,

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BNY Mellon’s chief economist shares his prognosis for the months ahead. Cheer up (a little).

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BNY Mellon chief economist Richard B. Hoey acknowledges that perils loom – from the US “fiscal cliff” to the euro’s lingering woes – but his prognosis is that the world’s economies will grow in 2013, though slowly. getAbstract recommends this lucid, expert economic snapshot.

Summary

Economic data forecast a “global growth recession,” with worldwide GDP increasing only 3% in 2012 and improving slightly in 2013. Stimulus programs have largely kept recession at bay, except in the euro zone. Expect real US GDP growth of “2% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013.” Enhanced banking regulations and loose monetary policies have helped interest-rate-sensitive industries, such as housing and cars, lift the US economy. While the Fed’s apparent willingness to ease fiscal pressures alleviates some concerns, worries coalesce around the looming “fiscal cliff” of “automatic spending cuts and tax hikes” slated for late 2012. Legislation...

About the Author

Richard B. Hoey is the chief economist for BNY Mellon. His periodic analyses of the world economy include this “Economic Update” from August 9, 2012.

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